The truth often presented is that generals and admirals always fight the last war, never the next war. The next war is fought only after the military is in it. A prime example of this fact was that in 1939, Germany defeated all of Europe because its opponents were still arming for World War I. Look at the United States in Iraq; the Pentagon figured that Iraq would be a pushover. We are arming, rearming and developing new weapons because the military was not and is not prepared for this new type of war.
In today's world there is no power, besides the U.S., that has an army, navy or major air force. An enemy country would have to put a land army onto U.S. shores in order to actually overcome the United States. Why then has the U.S. landed an army in Iraq? The U.S. keeps soldiers in South Korea, Japan and Germany. Why did the U.S. lose so many lives fighting in Vietnam, Korea, and in World War II?
Today, the world has places were guerrilla war is the norm. Look at the Philippines, Israel, Spain, Sri Lanka and now Iraq. Air planes, aircraft carriers, tanks or major weapons cannot help prevent another 9/11 attack or the subways bombings of London. The United States is being eaten up alive in Iraq because we never had enough troops in Iraq to control anything. Enlistments in the U.S. are being dried up because of the war in Iraq. Fresh soldiers are needed to replace those who have already made several tours of duty.
Money has more power than weapons and armed forces. Throughout history it was always the wealthiest country that won the war. Countries could buy victory with money. The world operates on oil. This includes industry, transportation and the military. Nothing will move without an adequate supply of oil. Our air force will be grounded, our navy held in port, and our army will not have support or supplies. The U.S. domestic supply of oil is about 20% of what is needed. That oil will have to go for essentials. Violent weather can and does disrupt the production of our supply. The United States relies heavily on foreign oil supplies and needs dollars to purchase oil.
What happens if and when the dollar is no longer accepted as payment for purchases? That is not as far-fetched as it appears. Not many months ago, a low-level employee in South Korea improperly announced that the country was going to sell its dollar holdings. The international monetary market went wild. The dollar plunged until a senior official in that country stated that the announcement was totally wrong. The same event transpired weeks later when a low-level Japanese employee started the same rumor. Japan, China and many other Far East countries have large holdings of dollars.
There is the universal assumption that it does not make sense economically for any of these countries to bite the hand that feeds them. The United States is the biggest customer of their exported products. We pay with dollars. It will not be long before one of these countries realizes that the dollar is worthless and that they are accepting valueless currency. One morning a Chinese official may wake up realizing that it is only the Seventh Fleet standing in the way of China regaining its lost territory, Taiwan. This official knows that China has huge holdings of dollars; so he starts selling them. He rationalizes that China may lose a large fortune in its reserve currency holdings, but China will gain a very prosperous island, with its own reserves. He also realizes that he would make the United States a second rate power. China would become top gun.
The United States government is spending far more nationally than dollars available. Therefore the nation is forced to borrow. The same is true internationally; the U.S. has been buying more than selling since 1977. There is no way that the United States will ever be able to redeem the notes and bonds that it has used to cover this overspending.
As pointed out in "Neither Borrower nor Lender Be." article our Congress frequently insults the Chinese over various issues. China knows it will also need oil to advance its growing economy. By now, the U. S. should know the potential negative results of foolish actions.
Chester P. Soling
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